US Egyptian relations, Sisi’s game changer

A few weeks from now, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will head to the US for the first time since his inauguration in June. The purpose of the visit is to attend the 69th UN general assembly in New York City. This comes after Sisi turned down a number of invitations to visit the US. Instead he has opted to visit other countries, notably Russia. It remains to be seen whether Sisi’s impending visit will include a meeting with American president Barak Obama.

Meeting or no meeting, the Americans are bound to find that the rules of the game have witnessed a remarkable change - a change introduced by Sisi. 

The Egyptian-brokered peace agreement that stopped Israel from attacking Gaza has been one such game changer - a major political victory for the Egyptians. Cairo has shown that it still holds the biggest influence in the region, and that would-be powers such as Qatar do not really stand a chance no matter how much money they are willing to throw on the Gaza problem. Geopolitics grant Egypt an advantage here that money simply cannot buy. 

Eventually, Washington (and Hamas) had to accept Egypt’s role in resolving the conflict.

A chill has come over US Egyptian relations ever since Mohamed Morsi’s removal from power in July 3rd 2013. Despite the fact that US secretary of state John Kerry visited Cairo several times since Sisi’s inauguration and congratulated him on his election, the Obama administration is still partially withholding military aid; crucially the Apache fighters that Egypt needs to crack down on terrorists in Sinai. 

Unfazed by Washington’s aloofness, Sisi turned to other partners. Russia will provide Egypt with substantial military equipment over the course of three years. Saudi Arabia has given Egypt many times the funding that the US withheld during the past year alone. Right from the start, Sisi has seemed aware that - unlike Israel - he has other options, and has acted upon that awareness.

A quick look at the most recent developments in US Egyptian relations does not portray a pretty picture. Washington officials have denounced what they described as Egyptian and UAE aerial raids on Libya. The raids are “an intervention that will escalate the turmoil in Libya” according to anonymous officials speaking to USA Today. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri dismissed the reported raids as "unsubstantiated rumours.” 

In any case, denouncing an Egyptian intervention in Libya is easy for the Americans, their country does not share a border with a chaotic state that seems to be disintegrating by the hour; falling prey to a civil war that can easily spill into Egypt’s borders. 

Earlier, the spokesperson for Egypt’s foreign ministry, ambassador Badr Abdel Aty, called upon US authorities to “exercise restraint and refrain from the use of disproportionate power" when dealing with the Missouri protestors. Admittedly, Egyptian police brutality has been in the news more often than not - but this is hardly the point. Aty’s comments demonstrate how Egypt, like Iran and Russia, could not bring itself to miss a chance at pointing out Washington’s double standards when it comes to freedom of expression and human rights.

And round about the same time John Kerry was subjected to an unprecedented metal detector security check in Cairo before being allowed to meet Sisi, an incident which US State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki dismissed as not all that important.

Theoretically speaking, the ISIS in Iraq - the US’s new worst enemy - should be a common foe for both Washington and Cairo. Instead, rumours spread in Egypt (helped along by the pro Sisi media) that ISIS is actually an American creation. Egyptian media has been using ISIS’s atrocities as proof of what lay in store for Egyptians had Islamists remained in power, pushing anti-American sentiments to an all-time low on the streets of Egypt. On the other hand, Anti coup media in the US consider the sudden rise of ISIS a direct result of toppling ‘moderate’ Islamists such as Mohamed Morsi. The result being that ISIS became yet another lost chance of US-Egyptian reconciliation.

If the Obama administration did not have prior knowledge of the mysterious air raids over Libya (as the world seems to be expected to believe), and if ISIS’s power ascent genuinely took Washington by surprise, then Sisi could arguably have cause to celebrate. Such American irrelevance can only mean the way is paved for Sisi to change the game.